Cost vs. Payoff Calculator
Add up what a sport is likely to cost your family — then see it next to the NCAA's own numbers on the probability of playing in college and what a scholarship is typically worth. Free, no sign-up.
Over 10 years, your family is on track to spend about $11,880 on soccer. Nationally, about 5.9% of high school soccer players go on to play in college at any NCAA division — and if a scholarship comes, NCAA Division I and II schools award an average of about $20,305 a year.
This sport's statistical return is well below its typical cost.
*Expected value = probability of competing at any division × the NCAA's own published D1+D2 average scholarship (all sports combined, not sport-specific) × 4 college years. This is a statistical illustration, not a prediction for any individual athlete — most families who invest in a sport will not receive an athletics scholarship.
Last reviewed: August 2026
How this number is calculated
Total invested is simply your annual cost multiplied by the number of years you expect to play. The expected scholarship value multiplies your sport's probability of competing in college (any NCAA division) by the NCAA's own average annual scholarship value, projected across a standard 4-year college career:
The two totals are shown side by side as a net difference. That difference is negative for most sports — that's the real math the site is named for, not an error.
Sources
- Probability of competing in college, by sport and gender: NCAA — Estimated Probability of Competing in College Athletics, 2024-25 survey years — ncaa.org.
- Average annual family cost, by sport: Aspen Institute Project Play — State of Play youth sports parent surveys — 2022 Costs to Play chart (PDF). Only soccer, basketball, baseball, and football have a published figure; every other sport defaults to the 2024 all-sports average and is meant to be edited.
- Average scholarship value: NCAA — Recruiting Facts (Division I and II athletics scholarships) (2024-10) — NCAA Recruiting Facts (PDF).
Assumptions & limitations
- Annual cost is your own number, not a government figure for every sport. Only four sports have a published per-sport average; edit the field to match your family's real spending for an accurate total.
- Scholarship value is an all-sport aggregate, not sport-specific. The NCAA doesn't publish a per-sport dollar breakdown, so a sport with a low probability of competing and one with a higher probability are measured against the same average award.
- Expected value, not a prediction. Multiplying a probability by an average payout describes an outcome averaged across many families, not a forecast for any one athlete.
- Division III offers no athletics scholarships. The scholarship figure applies to a Division I or II award only; the Division I probability shown is for context.
Informational only, not financial or recruiting advice. Consult your family's own budget and a qualified advisor before making decisions about sports spending.
Frequently asked questions
Where does the average scholarship figure come from?
The NCAA's own published aggregate: Division I and II schools award nearly $4.0 billion in athletics scholarships annually to about 197,000 student-athletes — roughly $20,305 per athlete per year. That's an all-sport, D1+D2 combined average. The NCAA doesn't publish a separate dollar average for each sport, so this calculator uses the same aggregate figure across every sport rather than inventing a per-sport number.
Why doesn't every sport have its own cost figure?
Only four sports — soccer, basketball, baseball, and football — have a published average annual family cost, from the Aspen Institute's Project Play State of Play 2025 survey. Every other sport starts from the $1,016 all-sports average and is meant to be edited to match what your family actually spends.
Is the "expected scholarship value" a promise I'll get that much?
No. It's an expected-value calculation — probability of competing multiplied by the average scholarship payout — the kind of number an insurer or statistician would use, not a forecast for your specific child. Most families who invest in a sport will never receive an athletics scholarship at all; the probability figure is exactly what tells you that.
Why is the net difference negative for almost every sport?
Because that's the real math: multi-year family spending on a sport is, for nearly every sport, larger than the statistical expected value of a scholarship. That's not a flaw in the calculator — it's the actual return most families see, which is why SidelinePlan shows the two numbers side by side instead of just one.
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