NCAA Probability by Sport
The NCAA's own published probability of playing in college — any division, and Division I specifically — by sport and gender. Free, no sign-up.
Nationally, about 5.9% of high school soccer players go on to play in college at any NCAA division — about 1.4% specifically at Division I. That ranks soccer 7 of 14 boys' sports for probability of competing at any division.
| Sport | Any division | Division I |
|---|---|---|
| Lacrosse | 14.7% | 3.4% |
| Ice Hockey | 14.1% | 5.2% |
| Baseball | 8.8% | 2.7% |
| Swimming | 8.5% | 3.3% |
| Football | 8.1% | 3.4% |
| Cross Country | 6.4% | 2.2% |
| Soccer | 5.9% | 1.4% |
| Water Polo | 5.7% | 3.3% |
| Golf | 5.4% | 1.8% |
| Track & Field | 5.4% | 1.9% |
| Tennis | 4.7% | 1.5% |
| Basketball | 3.6% | 1.1% |
| Volleyball | 3.6% | 0.6% |
| Wrestling | 3.0% | 0.9% |
Last reviewed: August 2026
How this is calculated
No calculation — this is a direct lookup of the NCAA's own published table. The NCAA compares NFHS high school participation totals to NCAA participation totals for each sport and gender to arrive at a probability of competing at any division and at Division I specifically.
Source
- Probability of competing in college, by sport and gender: NCAA — Estimated Probability of Competing in College Athletics, 2024-25 survey years — ncaa.org.
Assumptions & limitations
- High-school-participant denominator. Probability is NCAA participants divided by high school participants for that sport and gender — a national ceiling, not an individual forecast for any one athlete.
- Division III offers no athletics scholarships. The any-division figure includes D3; the Division I column is shown separately for that reason.
- National average only. State, regional, and individual school differences in participation and competitiveness aren't reflected here.
Informational only, not recruiting advice. These are national averages, not a prediction for any individual athlete.
Frequently asked questions
Where do these probability figures come from?
Directly from the NCAA's own published research comparing NFHS high school participation figures to NCAA participation figures, sport by sport and gender by gender. It's the NCAA's own estimate, not a modeled or invented number.
Does a higher "any division" probability mean better scholarship odds?
Not necessarily. Division III offers no athletics scholarships at all, so a sport with a high any-division rate but a low Division I rate may have less scholarship money behind it than the raw percentage suggests. Check the Division I column, and see the Cost vs. Payoff Calculator for the scholarship-value comparison.
Why is there no cost information on this page?
This tool is a pure probability lookup — it isolates one question (how likely is a high school athlete in this sport to play in college) without mixing in cost assumptions. The Cost vs. Payoff Calculator combines this same probability data with real family spending figures for the fuller picture.
Are these probabilities specific to my state or region?
No — they're national averages built from nationwide NFHS and NCAA totals. Participation rates and roster competitiveness vary by state and even by individual high school, which this figure can't capture.
Related tools
Add up what a sport costs your family over the years, set against real, cited NCAA probability and scholarship data.
Open tool →Family Sports Budget CalculatorAdd up your household's total youth-sports spending across every kid and sport, itemized by category, with real cited defaults you can edit.
Open tool →Scholarship Value EstimatorSee the real gap between a "full ride" and the NCAA's own average athletics scholarship value, by division.
Open tool →Private Coaching & Camps ROIIsolate what your family spends on private coaching, lessons, and camps specifically, set against the NCAA's own published probability and scholarship data.
Open tool →